The role of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing post-COVID-19 thromboembolic and cardiovascular complications.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between COVID-19 vaccination and the risk of post-COVID-19 cardiac and thromboembolic complications. METHODS: We conducted a staggered cohort study based on national vaccination campaigns using electronic health records from the UK, Spain and Estonia. Vaccine rollout was grouped into four stages with predefined enrolment periods. Each stage included all individuals eligible for vaccination, with no previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccine at the start date. Vaccination status was used as a time-varying exposure. Outcomes included heart failure (HF), venous thromboembolism (VTE) and arterial thrombosis/thromboembolism (ATE) recorded in four time windows after SARS-CoV-2 infection: 0-30, 31-90, 91-180 and 181-365 days. Propensity score overlap weighting and empirical calibration were used to minimise observed and unobserved confounding, respectively.Fine-Gray models estimated subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR). Random effect meta-analyses were conducted across staggered cohorts and databases. RESULTS: The study included 10.17 million vaccinated and 10.39 million unvaccinated people. Vaccination was associated with reduced risks of acute (30-day) and post-acute COVID-19 VTE, ATE and HF: for example, meta-analytic sHR of 0.22 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.29), 0.53 (0.44 to 0.63) and 0.45 (0.38 to 0.53), respectively, for 0-30 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection, while in the 91-180 days sHR were 0.53 (0.40 to 0.70), 0.72 (0.58 to 0.88) and 0.61 (0.51 to 0.73), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination reduced the risk of post-COVID-19 cardiac and thromboembolic outcomes. These effects were more pronounced for acute COVID-19 outcomes, consistent with known reductions in disease severity following breakthrough versus unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Comparative Effectiveness of Second-line Antihyperglycemic Agents for Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Large-scale, Multinational, Federated Analysis of the LEGEND-T2DM Study.

Background: SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) reduce major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, their effectiveness relative to each other and other second-line antihyperglycemic agents is unknown, without any major ongoing head-to-head trials. Methods: Across the LEGEND-T2DM network, we included ten federated international data sources, spanning 1992-2021. We identified 1,492,855 patients with T2DM and established cardiovascular disease (CVD) on metformin monotherapy who initiated one of four second-line agents (SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor [DPP4is], sulfonylureas [SUs]). We used large-scale propensity score models to conduct an active comparator, target trial emulation for pairwise comparisons. After evaluating empirical equipoise and population generalizability, we fit on-treatment Cox proportional hazard models for 3-point MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, death) and 4-point MACE (3-point MACE + heart failure hospitalization) risk, and combined hazard ratio (HR) estimates in a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings: Across cohorts, 16·4%, 8·3%, 27·7%, and 47·6% of individuals with T2DM initiated SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, DPP4is, and SUs, respectively. Over 5·2 million patient-years of follow-up and 489 million patient-days of time at-risk, there were 25,982 3-point MACE and 41,447 4-point MACE events. SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs were associated with a lower risk for 3-point MACE compared with DPP4is (HR 0·89 [95% CI, 0·79-1·00] and 0·83 [0·70-0·98]), and SUs (HR 0·76 [0·65-0·89] and 0·71 [0·59-0·86]). DPP4is were associated with a lower 3-point MACE risk versus SUs (HR 0·87 [0·79-0·95]). The pattern was consistent for 4-point MACE for the comparisons above. There were no significant differences between SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs for 3-point or 4-point MACE (HR 1·06 [0·96-1·17] and 1·05 [0·97-1·13]). Interpretation: In patients with T2DM and established CVD, we found comparable cardiovascular risk reduction with SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs, with both agents more effective than DPP4is, which in turn were more effective than SUs. These findings suggest that the use of GLP1-RAs and SGLT2is should be prioritized as second-line agents in those with established CVD. Funding: National Institutes of Health, United States Department of Veterans Affairs.

Real-world treatment trajectories of adults with newly diagnosed asthma or COPD.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of knowledge on how patients with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are globally treated in the real world, especially with regard to the initial pharmacological treatment of newly diagnosed patients and the different treatment trajectories. This knowledge is important to monitor and improve clinical practice. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study aims to characterise treatments using data from four claims (drug dispensing) and four electronic health record (EHR; drug prescriptions) databases across six countries and three continents, encompassing 1.3 million patients with asthma or COPD. We analysed treatment trajectories at drug class level from first diagnosis and visualised these in sunburst plots. RESULTS: In four countries (USA, UK, Spain and the Netherlands), most adults with asthma initiate treatment with short-acting ß2 agonists monotherapy (20.8%-47.4% of first-line treatments). For COPD, the most frequent first-line treatment varies by country. The largest percentages of untreated patients (for asthma and COPD) were found in claims databases (14.5%-33.2% for asthma and 27.0%-52.2% for COPD) from the USA as compared with EHR databases (6.9%-15.2% for asthma and 4.4%-17.5% for COPD) from European countries. The treatment trajectories showed step-up as well as step-down in treatments. CONCLUSION: Real-world data from claims and EHRs indicate that first-line treatments of asthma and COPD vary widely across countries. We found evidence of a stepwise approach in the pharmacological treatment of asthma and COPD, suggesting that treatments may be tailored to patients' needs.

Supporting Pharmacovigilance Signal Validation and Prioritization with Analyses of Routinely Collected Health Data: Lessons Learned from an EHDEN Network Study.

INTRODUCTION: Individual case reports are the main asset in pharmacovigilance signal management. Signal validation is the first stage after signal detection and aims to determine if there is sufficient evidence to justify further assessment. Throughout signal management, a prioritization of signals is continually made. Routinely collected health data can provide relevant contextual information but are primarily used at a later stage in pharmacoepidemiological studies to assess communicated signals. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the feasibility and utility of analysing routine health data from a multinational distributed network to support signal validation and prioritization and to reflect on key user requirements for these analyses to become an integral part of this process. METHODS: Statistical signal detection was performed in VigiBase, the WHO global database of individual case safety reports, targeting generic manufacturer drugs and 16 prespecified adverse events. During a 5-day study-a-thon, signal validation and prioritization were performed using information from VigiBase, regulatory documents and the scientific literature alongside descriptive analyses of routine health data from 10 partners of the European Health Data and Evidence Network (EHDEN). Databases included in the study were from the UK, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands and Serbia, capturing records from primary care and/or hospitals. RESULTS: Ninety-five statistical signals were subjected to signal validation, of which eight were considered for descriptive analyses in the routine health data. Design, execution and interpretation of results from these analyses took up to a few hours for each signal (of which 15-60 minutes were for execution) and informed decisions for five out of eight signals. The impact of insights from the routine health data varied and included possible alternative explanations, potential public health and clinical impact and feasibility of follow-up pharmacoepidemiological studies. Three signals were selected for signal assessment, two of these decisions were supported by insights from the routine health data. Standardization of analytical code, availability of adverse event phenotypes including bridges between different source vocabularies, and governance around the access and use of routine health data were identified as important aspects for future development. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of routine health data from a distributed network to support signal validation and prioritization are feasible in the given time limits and can inform decision making. The cost-benefit of integrating these analyses at this stage of signal management requires further research.

Multinational patterns of second line antihyperglycaemic drug initiation across cardiovascular risk groups: federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM.

Objective: To assess the uptake of second line antihyperglycaemic drugs among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who are receiving metformin. Design: Federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM. Setting: 10 US and seven non-US electronic health record and administrative claims databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics network in eight countries from 2011 to the end of 2021. Participants: 4.8 million patients (≥18 years) across US and non-US based databases with type 2 diabetes mellitus who had received metformin monotherapy and had initiated second line treatments. Exposure: The exposure used to evaluate each database was calendar year trends, with the years in the study that were specific to each cohort. Main outcomes measures: The outcome was the incidence of second line antihyperglycaemic drug use (ie, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sulfonylureas) among individuals who were already receiving treatment with metformin. The relative drug class level uptake across cardiovascular risk groups was also evaluated. Results: 4.6 million patients were identified in US databases, 61 382 from Spain, 32 442 from Germany, 25 173 from the UK, 13 270 from France, 5580 from Scotland, 4614 from Hong Kong, and 2322 from Australia. During 2011-21, the combined proportional initiation of the cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors) increased across all data sources, with the combined initiation of these drugs as second line drugs in 2021 ranging from 35.2% to 68.2% in the US databases, 15.4% in France, 34.7% in Spain, 50.1% in Germany, and 54.8% in Scotland. From 2016 to 2021, in some US and non-US databases, uptake of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors increased more significantly among populations with no cardiovascular disease compared with patients with established cardiovascular disease. No data source provided evidence of a greater increase in the uptake of these two drug classes in populations with cardiovascular disease compared with no cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: Despite the increase in overall uptake of cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs as second line treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus, their uptake was lower in patients with cardiovascular disease than in people with no cardiovascular disease over the past decade. A strategy is needed to ensure that medication use is concordant with guideline recommendations to improve outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Transforming the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) in Catalonia to the OMOP Common Data Model and Its Use for COVID-19 Research.

Purpose: The primary aim of this work was to convert the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) from Catalonia, Spain, to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM). Our second aim was to provide a descriptive analysis of COVID-19-related outcomes among the general population. Patients and Methods: We mapped patient-level data from SIDIAP to the OMOP CDM and we performed more than 3,400 data quality checks to assess its readiness for research. We established a general population cohort as of the 1st March 2020 and identified outpatient COVID-19 diagnoses or tested positive for, hospitalised with, admitted to intensive care units (ICU) with, died with, or vaccinated against COVID-19 up to 30th June 2022. Results: After verifying the high quality of the transformed dataset, we included 5,870,274 individuals in the general population cohort. Of those, 604,472 had either an outpatient COVID-19 diagnosis or positive test result, 58,991 had a hospitalisation, 5,642 had an ICU admission, and 11,233 died with COVID-19. A total of 4,584,515 received a COVID-19 vaccine. People who were hospitalised or died were more commonly older, male, and with more comorbidities. Those admitted to ICU with COVID-19 were generally younger and more often male than those hospitalised and those who died. Conclusion: We successfully transformed SIDIAP to the OMOP CDM. From this dataset, a general population cohort of 5.9 million individuals was identified and their COVID-19-related outcomes over time were described. The transformed SIDIAP database is a valuable resource that can enable distributed network research in COVID-19 and beyond.

Validation of gout diagnosis in electronic primary care medical records: A population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: The main objective of the study was to see the concordance between the diagnosis of gout recorded in primary care electronic medical records and the ACR/EULAR 2015 classification criteria. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using electronic medicals records in 7 primary care centres of Barcelona. Patients' data to study clinical diagnose and management was gathered from the primary care electronic medical records of the Catalonian health institute (Institut Català de la Salut, ICS) and phone interview. Patients were considered to have gout if they scored 8 or more points on the EULAR/ACR 2015 classification criteria for gout. RESULTS: In total, 70.9% of the patients with a gout diagnosis met ACR/EULAR 2015 criteria. Adding a hyperuricemia in a blood test in the EMR increased the percentage to 78.9%. 29.8% of the gout patients were not receiving urate-lowering therapy. 62.3% of the treated patients did not achieve the target uricemia (< 6mg/dL). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of gout patients from primary care electronic medical records fulfil ACR/EULAR gout criteria. This database can be used for observational studies. In most of the gout patients the urate target was not achieved.

Drug utilization analysis of osteoporosis medications in seven European electronic health databases.

We studied the characteristics of patients prescribed osteoporosis medication and patterns of use in European databases. Patients were mostly female, older, had hypertension. There was suboptimal persistence particularly for oral medications. Our findings would be useful to healthcare providers to focus their resources on improving persistence to specific osteoporosis treatments. PURPOSE: To characterise the patients prescribed osteoporosis therapy and describe the drug utilization patterns. METHODS: We investigated the treatment patterns of bisphosphonates, denosumab, teriparatide, and selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) in seven European databases in the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, and Germany. In this cohort study, we included adults aged ≥ 18 years, with ≥ 1 year of registration in the respective databases, who were new users of the osteoporosis medications. The study period was between 01 January 2018 to 31 January 2022. RESULTS: Overall, patients were most commonly initiated on alendronate. Persistence decreased over time across all medications and databases, ranging from 52-73% at 6 months to 29-53% at 12 months for alendronate. For other oral bisphosphonates, the proportion of persistent users was 50-66% at 6 months and decreased to 30-44% at 12 months. For SERMs, the proportion of persistent users at 6 months was 40-73% and decreased to 25-59% at 12 months. For parenteral treatment groups, the proportions of persistence with denosumab were 50-85% (6 month), 30-63% (12 month) and with teriparatide 40-75% (6 month) decreasing to 21-54% (12 month). Switching occurred most frequently in the alendronate group (2.8-5.8%) and in the teriparatide group (7.1-14%). Switching typically occurred in the first 6 months and decreased over time. Patients in the alendronate group most often switched to other oral or intravenous bisphosphonates and denosumab. CONCLUSION: Our results show suboptimal persistence to medications that varied across different databases and treatment switching was relatively rare.

Time trends in the incidence of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes by sex and socioeconomic status in Catalonia, Spain: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate how longitudinal trends in cardiovascular disease, hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence in Catalonia, Spain from 2009 to 2018 may differ by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation. DESIGN: Cohort study using prospectively collected data. SETTING: Electronic health records from primary healthcare centres in Catalonia, Spain. PARTICIPANTS: 3 247 244 adults (≥40 years). OUTCOME MEASURES: We calculated the annual incidence (per 1000 persons-year) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) between three time periods of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus to measure trends and changes in incidence during the study period. RESULTS: In 2016-2018 compared with 2009-2012, cardiovascular disease incidence increased in the 40-54 (eg, IRR=1.61, 95% CI: 1.52 to 1.69 in women) and 55-69 age groups. There was no change in cardiovascular disease incidence in women aged 70+ years, and a slight decrease in men aged 70+ years (0.93, 0.90 to 0.95). Hypertension incidence decreased in all age groups for both sexes. Type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence decreased in all age groups for both sexes (eg, 0.72, 0.70 to 0.73 in women aged 55-69 years), except for the 40-54 year age group (eg, 1.09, 1.06 to 1.13 in women). Higher incidence levels were found in the most deprived areas, especially in the 40-54 and 55-69 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Overall cardiovascular disease incidence has increased while hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence have decreased in the last years in Catalonia, Spain, with differences in trends by age group and socioeconomic deprivation.

Impact of European Union Label Changes for Fluoroquinolone-Containing Medicinal Products for Systemic and Inhalation Use: Post-Referral Prescribing Trends.

INTRODUCTION: Concerns of the persistence and severity of the adverse effects of fluoroquinolones, mainly involving the nervous system, muscles and joints, resulted in the 2018 referral procedure led by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). They advised to stop prescribing fluoroquinolones for infections of mild severity or of a presumed self-limiting course and for prevention of infections, plus to restrict prescriptions in cases of milder infections where other treatment options are available, and restrict in at-risk populations. We aimed to examine whether the impact of EMA regulatory interventions implemented throughout 2018-2019 had an impact on fluoroquinolone prescribing rates. METHODS: A retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted using electronic health care records from six European countries between 2016 and 2021. We analysed monthly incident fluoroquinolone use rates overall and for each fluoroquinolone active substance through flexible modelling via segmented regression to detect time points of trend changes, in monthly percentage change (MPC). RESULTS: The incidence of fluoroquinolone use ranged from 0.7 to 8.0/1000 persons per month over all calendar years. While changes in fluoroquinolone prescriptions were observed over time across countries, these were inconsistent and did not seem to be temporally related to EMA interventions (e.g., Belgium: February/May 2018, MPC - 33.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 35.9 to - 30.7; Germany: February/May 2019, MPC - 12.6%, 95% CI - 13.7 to - 11.6]; UK: January/April 2016, MPC - 4.9%, 95% CI - 6.2 to - 3.6). CONCLUSION: The regulatory action associated with the 2018 referral did not seem to have relevant effects on fluoroquinolone prescribing in primary care.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on eating disorders diagnoses among adolescents and young adults in Catalonia: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on trends in incidence rates (IR) of diagnoses of eating disorders (ED) among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Population-based cohort study using primary care records of people aged 10-24 years between January, 2016 and December, 2021 in Catalonia, Spain. IRs were calculated monthly and grouped by the different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Catalonia: (1) the pre-lockdown (January, 2016-February, 2020), (2) lockdown (March-June, 2020) and, (3) post-lockdown (July, 2020-December, 2021) periods. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) relative to the corresponding periods in 2018-2019 were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 1,179,009 individuals were included. The IR was 9.2 per 100,000 person-months (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 8.9-9.5) during the pre-lockdown period. It decreased during the lockdown period (6.3 per 100,000 person-months [5.5-7.3]), but substantially increased during the following period (19.4. per 100,000 person-months [18.7-20.1]). While large reductions in IRs were observed for both sexes during the lockdown period (IRR 95% CI: 0.65 [0.54-0.78] in females and 0.46 [0.29-0.71] in males), substantial increases during the post-lockdown period were limited to females, and were particularly pronounced among those aged 10-14 and 15-19 years (2.50 [2.23-2.80] and 2.29 [2.07-2.54], respectively). DISCUSSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a substantial increase in ED diagnoses, primarily driven by higher rates among adolescent females. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: This population-based cohort study demonstrated a substantial increase in incidence rates of eating disorders in primary care following the end of lockdown in Catalonia, Spain, with adolescent girls seen to be most affected.

Thrombosis and thrombocytopenia after vaccination against and infection with SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom.

Population-based studies can provide important evidence on the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. Using data from the United Kingdom, here we compare observed rates of thrombosis and thrombocytopenia following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 and infection with SARS-CoV-2 with background (expected) rates in the general population. First and second dose cohorts for ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 between 8 December 2020 and 2 May 2021 in the United Kingdom were identified. A further cohort consisted of people with no prior COVID-19 vaccination who were infected with SARS-Cov-2 identified by a first positive PCR test between 1 September 2020 and 2 May 2021. The fourth general population cohort for background rates included those people in the database as of 1 January 2017. In total, we included 3,768,517 ChAdOx1 and 1,832,841 BNT162b2 vaccinees, 401,691 people infected with SARS-CoV-2, and 9,414,403 people from the general population. An increased risk of venous thromboembolism was seen after first dose of ChAdOx1 (standardized incidence ratio: 1.12 [95% CI: 1.05 to 1.20]), BNT162b2 (1.12 [1.03 to 1.21]), and positive PCR test (7.27 [6.86 to 7.72]). Rates of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis were higher than otherwise expected after first dose of ChAdOx1 (4.14 [2.54 to 6.76]) and a SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive test (3.74 [1.56 to 8.98]). Rates of arterial thromboembolism after vaccination were no higher than expected but were increased after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive test (1.39 [1.21 to 1.61]). Rates of venous thromboembolism with thrombocytopenia were higher than expected after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive test (5.76 [3.19 to 10.40]).

Thrombosis and thrombocytopenia after vaccination against and infection with SARS-CoV-2 in Catalonia, Spain.

Population-based studies can provide important evidence on the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. Here we compare rates of thrombosis and thrombocytopenia following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 with the background (expected) rates in the general population. In addition, we compare the rates of the same adverse events among persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 with background rates. Primary care and linked hospital data from Catalonia, Spain informed the study, with participants vaccinated with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 (27/12/2020-23/06/2021), COVID-19 cases (01/09/2020-23/06/2021) or present in the database as of 01/01/2017. We included 2,021,366 BNT162b2 (1,327,031 with 2 doses), 592,408 ChAdOx1, 174,556 COVID-19 cases, and 4,573,494 background participants. Standardised incidence ratios for venous thromboembolism were 1.18 (95% CI 1.06-1.32) and 0.92 (0.81-1.05) after first- and second dose BNT162b2, and 0.92 (0.71-1.18) after first dose ChAdOx1. The standardised incidence ratio for venous thromboembolism in COVID-19 was 10.19 (9.43-11.02). Standardised incidence ratios for arterial thromboembolism were 1.02 (0.95-1.09) and 1.04 (0.97-1.12) after first- and second dose BNT162b2, 1.06 (0.91-1.23) after first-dose ChAdOx1 and 4.13 (3.83-4.45) for COVID-19. Standardised incidence ratios for thrombocytopenia were 1.49 (1.43-1.54) and 1.40 (1.35-1.45) after first- and second dose BNT162b2, 1.28 (1.19-1.38) after first-dose ChAdOx1 and 4.59 (4.41- 4.77) for COVID-19. While rates of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia were generally similar to background rates, the standardised incidence ratio for pulmonary embolism with thrombocytopenia after first-dose BNT162b2 was 1.70 (1.11-2.61). These findings suggest that the safety profiles of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 are similar, with rates of adverse events seen after vaccination typically similar to background rates. Meanwhile, rates of adverse events are much increased for COVID-19 cases further underlining the importance of vaccination.

Development and external validation of a 1- and 5-year fracture prediction tool based on electronic medical records data: The EPIC risk algorithm.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a fracture risk algorithm for the automatic identification of subjects at high risk of imminent and long-term fracture risk. RESEARCH, DESIGN, AND METHODS: A cohort of subjects aged 50-85, between 2007 and 2017, was extracted from the Catalan information system for the development of research in primary care database (SIDIAP). Participants were followed until the earliest of death, transfer out, fracture, or 12/31/2017. Potential risk factors were obtained based on the existing literature. Cox regression was used to model 1 and 5-year risk of hip and major fracture. The original cohort was randomly split in 80:20 for development and internal validation purposes respectively. External validation was explored in a cohort extracted from the Spanish database for pharmaco-epidemiological research in primary care. RESULTS: A total of 1.76 million people were included from SIDIAP (50.7 % women with mean age of 65.4 years). Hip and major fracture incidence rates were 3.57 [95%CI 3.53 to 3.60] and 11.61 [95%CI 11.54 to 11.68] per 1000 person-years, respectively. The derived model included 19 risk factors. Internal validity showed good results on calibration and discrimination. The 1-year C-statistic for hip and major fracture were 0.851 (95%CI 0.853 to 0.864), and 0.717 (95%CI 0.742 to 0.749) respectively. The 5-year C-statistic for hip and major fracture were 0.849 (95%CI 0.847 to 0.852) and 0.724 (95%CI 0.721 to 0.727) respectively. External validation showed good performance for hip and major fracture risk prediction. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated a clinical prediction tool for 1- and 5-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risks using electronic primary care data. The proposed algorithm can be automatically estimated at the population level using the available primary care records. Future work is needed on the cost-effectiveness of its use for population-based screening and targeted prevention of osteoporotic fractures.

Trends of Dispensed Opioids in Catalonia, Spain, 2007-19: A Population-Based Cohort Study of Over 5 Million Individuals.

Objective: To characterize the trend of opioid use (number of users, dispensations and oral morphine milligram equivalents) in Catalonia (Spain). Design, setting, and participants: This population-based cohort study included all individuals aged 18 years or older, registered in the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP), which covers >75% of the population in Catalonia, Spain, from 1 January 2007, to 31 December 2019. Main exposure and outcomes: The exposures were all commercialized opioids and their combinations (ATC-codes): codeine, tramadol, oxycodone, tapentadol, fentanyl, morphine, and other opioids (dihydrocodeine, hydromorphone, dextropropoxyphene, buprenorphine, pethidine, pentazocine). The main outcomes were the annual figures per 1,000 individuals of 1) opioid users, 2) dispensations, and 3) oral morphine milligram equivalents (MME). Results were stratified separately by opioid types, age (5-year age groups), sex (male or female), living area (rural or urban), and socioeconomic status (from least, U1, to most deprived, U5). The overall trends were quantified using the percentage change (PC) between 2007 and 2019. Results: Among 4,656,197 and 4,798,114 residents from 2007 to 2019, the number of opioid users, dispensations and morphine milligram equivalents per 1,000 individuals increased 12% (percentage change: 95% confidence interval (CI) 11.9-12.3%), 105% (95% confidence interval 83%-126%) and 339% (95% CI 289%-390%) respectively. Tramadol represented the majority of opioid use in 2019 (61, 59, and 54% of opioid users, dispensations, and total MME, respectively). Individuals aged 80 years or over reported the sharpest increase regarding opioid users (PC: 162%), dispensations (PC: 424%), and MME (PC: 830%). Strong opioids were increasingly prescribed for non-cancer pains over the years. Conclusion: Despite the modest increase of opioid users, opioid dispensations and MME increased substantially, particularly in the older population. In addition, strong opioids were incrementally indicated for non-cancer pains over the years. These findings suggest a transition of opioid prescriptions from intermittent to chronic and weak to strong and call for more rigorous opioid stewardship.

Validation of an electronic frailty index with electronic health records: eFRAGICAP index.

OBJECTIVE: To create an electronic frailty index (eFRAGICAP) using electronic health records (EHR) in Catalunya (Spain) and assess its predictive validity with a two-year follow-up of the outcomes: homecare need, institutionalization and mortality in the elderly. Additionally, to assess its concurrent validity compared to other standardized measures: the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC). METHODS: The eFRAGICAP was based on the electronic frailty index (eFI) developed in United Kingdom, and includes 36 deficits identified through clinical diagnoses, prescriptions, physical examinations, and questionnaires registered in the EHR of primary health care centres (PHC). All subjects > 65 assigned to a PHC in Barcelona on 1st January, 2016 were included. Subjects were classified according to their eFRAGICAP index as: fit, mild, moderate or severe frailty. Predictive validity was assessed comparing results with the following outcomes: institutionalization, homecare need, and mortality at 24 months. Concurrent validation of the eFRAGICAP was performed with a sample of subjects (n = 333) drawn from the global cohort and the CFS and RISC. Discrimination and calibration measures for the outcomes of institutionalization, homecare need, and mortality and frailty scales were calculated. RESULTS: 253,684 subjects had their eFRAGICAP index calculated. Mean age was 76.3 years (59.5% women). Of these, 41.1% were classified as fit, and 32.2% as presenting mild, 18.7% moderate, and 7.9% severe frailty. The mean age of the subjects included in the validation subsample (n = 333) was 79.9 years (57.7% women). Of these, 12.6% were classified as fit, and 31.5% presented mild, 39.6% moderate, and 16.2% severe frailty. Regarding the outcome analyses, the eFRAGICAP was good in the detection of subjects who were institutionalized, required homecare assistance, or died at 24 months (c-statistic of 0.841, 0.853, and 0.803, respectively). eFRAGICAP was also good in the detection of frail subjects compared to the CFS (AUC 0.821) and the RISC (AUC 0.848). CONCLUSION: The eFRAGICAP has a good discriminative capacity to identify frail subjects compared to other frailty scales and predictive outcomes.

Venous or arterial thrombosis and deaths among COVID-19 cases: a European network cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on the incidence of thrombosis among COVID-19 cases, with most research concentrated on hospitalised patients. We aimed to estimate the incidence of venous thromboembolism, arterial thromboembolism, and death among COVID-19 cases and to assess the impact of these events on the risks of hospitalisation and death. METHODS: We conducted a distributed network cohort study using primary care records from the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and the UK, and outpatient specialist records from Germany. The Spanish database was linked to hospital admissions. Participants were followed up from the date of a diagnosis of COVID-19 or positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 (index date) for 90 days. The primary study outcomes were venous thromboembolic events, arterial thromboembolic events, and death, all over the 90 days from the index date. We estimated cumulative incidences for the study outcomes. Multistate models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between venous thromboembolism or arterial thromboembolism occurrence and risks of hospitalisation or COVID-19 fatality. FINDINGS: Overall, 909 473 COVID-19 cases and 32 329 patients hospitalised with COVID-19 on or after Sept 1, 2020, were studied. The latest index dates across the databases ranged from Jan 30, 2021, to July 31, 2021. Cumulative 90-day incidence of venous thromboembolism ranged from 0·2% to 0·8% among COVID-19 cases, and up to 4·5% for those hospitalised. For arterial thromboembolism, estimates ranged from 0·1% to 0·8% among COVID-19 cases, increasing to 3·1% among those hospitalised. Case fatality ranged from 1·1% to 2·0% among patients with COVID-19, rising to 14·6% for hospitalised patients. The occurrence of venous thromboembolism in patients with COVID-19 was associated with an increased risk of death (adjusted HRs 4·42 [3·07-6·36] for those not hospitalised and 1·63 [1·39-1·90] for those hospitalised), as was the occurrence of arterial thromboembolism (3·16 [2·65-3·75] and 1·93 [1·57-2·37]). INTERPRETATION: Risks of venous thromboembolism and arterial thromboembolism were up to 1% among COVID-19 cases, and increased with age, among males, and in those who were hospitalised. Their occurrence was associated with excess mortality, underlying the importance of developing effective treatment strategies that reduce their frequency. FUNDING: European Medicines Agency.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diagnoses of common mental health disorders in adults in Catalonia, Spain: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how trends in incidence of anxiety and depressive disorders have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Retrospective cohort study from 2018 to 2021 using the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) database in Catalonia, Spain. PARTICIPANTS: 3 640 204 individuals aged 18 or older in SIDIAP on 1 March 2018 with no history of anxiety and depressive disorders. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURES: The incidence of anxiety and depressive disorders during the prelockdown period (March 2018-February 2020), lockdown period (March-June 2020) and postlockdown period (July 2020-March 2021) was calculated. Forecasted rates over the COVID-19 periods were estimated using negative binomial regression models based on prelockdown data. The percentage of reduction was estimated by comparing forecasted versus observed events, overall and by sex, age and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: The incidence rates per 100 000 person-months of anxiety and depressive disorders were 151.1 (95% CI 150.3 to 152.0) and 32.3 (31.9 to 32.6), respectively, during the prelockdown period. We observed an increase of 37.1% (95% prediction interval 25.5 to 50.2) in incident anxiety diagnoses compared with the expected in March 2020, followed by a reduction of 15.8% (7.3 to 23.5) during the postlockdown period. A reduction in incident depressive disorders occurred during the lockdown and postlockdown periods (45.6% (39.2 to 51.0) and 22.0% (12.6 to 30.1), respectively). Reductions were higher among women during the lockdown period, adults aged 18-34 years and individuals living in the most deprived areas. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic in Catalonia was associated with an initial increase in anxiety disorders diagnosed in primary care but a reduction in cases as the pandemic continued. Diagnoses of depressive disorders were lower than expected throughout the pandemic.

Association between covid-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and risk of immune mediated neurological events: population based cohort and self-controlled case series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between covid-19 vaccines, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and risk of immune mediated neurological events. DESIGN: Population based historical rate comparison study and self-controlled case series analysis. SETTING: Primary care records from the United Kingdom, and primary care records from Spain linked to hospital data. PARTICIPANTS: 8 330 497 people who received at least one dose of covid-19 vaccines ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or Ad.26.COV2.S between the rollout of the vaccination campaigns and end of data availability (UK: 9 May 2021; Spain: 30 June 2021). The study sample also comprised a cohort of 735 870 unvaccinated individuals with a first positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2 from 1 September 2020, and 14 330 080 participants from the general population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were incidence of Bell's palsy, encephalomyelitis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and transverse myelitis. Incidence rates were estimated in the 21 days after the first vaccine dose, 90 days after a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, and between 2017 and 2019 for background rates in the general population cohort. Indirectly standardised incidence ratios were estimated. Adjusted incidence rate ratios were estimated from the self-controlled case series. RESULTS: The study included 4 376 535 people who received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, 3 588 318 who received BNT162b2, 244 913 who received mRNA-1273, and 120 731 who received Ad26.CoV.2; 735 870 people with SARS-CoV-2 infection; and 14 330 080 people from the general population. Overall, post-vaccine rates were consistent with expected (background) rates for Bell's palsy, encephalomyelitis, and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Self-controlled case series was conducted only for Bell's palsy, given limited statistical power, but with no safety signal seen for those vaccinated. Rates were, however, higher than expected after SARS-CoV-2 infection. For example, in the data from the UK, the standardised incidence ratio for Bell's palsy was 1.33 (1.02 to 1.74), for encephalomyelitis was 6.89 (3.82 to 12.44), and for Guillain-Barré syndrome was 3.53 (1.83 to 6.77). Transverse myelitis was rare (<5 events in all vaccinated cohorts) and could not be analysed. CONCLUSIONS: No safety signal was observed between covid-19 vaccines and the immune mediated neurological events of Bell's palsy, encephalomyelitis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and transverse myelitis. An increased risk of Bell's palsy, encephalomyelitis, and Guillain-Barré syndrome was, however, observed for people with SARS-CoV-2 infection.